Filing Flows › BP (BP) › Takeover & LBO
Is BP (BP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.89 a share) would return about 26% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $131.9B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $57.89 | today's $44.53 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,575.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $149.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $17.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $131.9B | 4.3× EBITDA of $30.5B |
| Fees | $2.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $85.8B | 2.8× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $48.8B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $197.5B | $31.2B | $6.6B | $22.3B | $63.5B |
| Year 2 | $202.8B | $32.1B | $4.9B | $24.2B | $39.3B |
| Year 3 | $208.5B | $33.0B | $3.0B | $26.2B | $13.1B |
| Year 4 | $214.5B | $33.9B | $1.0B | $28.4B | $0 |
| Year 5 | $220.9B | $35.0B | $0 | $30.0B | $0 |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $111.9B | |
| − Debt left | $0 | |
| + Cash built up | $45.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $157.1B | |
| Money multiple | 3.22× | on $48.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 26.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $44.53.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $48.98 | 34.2% |
| 20% | $53.44 | 30.1% |
| 30% | $57.89 | 26.3% |
| 40% | $62.34 | 22.8% |
| 50% | $66.80 | 19.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $192.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $30.5B | 15.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $17.8B | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $17.2B | |
| Share price | $44.53 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BP would cost about $59.00 a share, $152.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $53.44 | $137.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $59.00 | $152.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $67.60 | $174.1B |
BP's latest quarter
BP, Q3 2026: revenue $68.4B (+41% year over year), operating margin 14.2%, net earnings $4.7B, operating cash flow $14.8B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is BP being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy BP?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.89 a share) would return about 26% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $131.9B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of BP cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BP would cost about $59.00 a share, $152.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.