Filing Flows › Bellring Brands (BRBR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Bellring Brands (BRBR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($11.92 a share) would return about 17% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.78 a share (18% against today's $9.17). Historically 6.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.34× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $11.92 | today's $9.17 plus 30% |
| × shares | 116.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.1B | |
| − Cash | $50.4M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.5B | 7.5× EBITDA of $332M |
| Fees | $49.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 4.8× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $916M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.5B | $351M | $123M | $150M | $1.5B |
| Year 2 | $2.6B | $369M | $112M | $173M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $2.7B | $386M | $98.4M | $195M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $2.8B | $400M | $83.4M | $218M | $873M |
| Year 5 | $2.9B | $412M | $66.8M | $241M | $632M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.7B | |
| − Debt left | $632M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.0B | |
| Money multiple | 2.23× | on $916M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 17.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $9.17; the IRR reaches 20% at $10.78 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $10.09 | 21.6% |
| 20% | $11.00 | 19.5% |
| 30% | $11.92 | 17.4% |
| 40% | $12.84 | 15.4% |
| 50% | $13.75 | 13.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $332M | 14.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $19.8M | |
| Capital spending | $9.1M | |
| Debt | $1.1B | |
| Cash | $50.4M | |
| Share price | $9.17 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Bellring Brands would cost about $12.15 a share, $1.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $11.00 | $1.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $12.15 | $1.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $13.92 | $1.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.34× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Bellring Brands' latest quarter
Bellring Brands, Q3 FY26: revenue $570M (+4% year over year), operating margin 11.5%, net earnings $34.2M, operating cash flow $79.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Bellring Brands being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Bellring Brands?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($11.92 a share) would return about 17% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.78 a share (18% against today's $9.17).
What would a takeover of Bellring Brands cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Bellring Brands would cost about $12.15 a share, $1.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.