Filing Flows › Dutch Bros (BROS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Dutch Bros (BROS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($55.73 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $27.48 a share (−36% against today's $42.87). Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $55.73 | today's $42.87 plus 30% |
| × shares | 138.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $200M | |
| − Cash | $195M | |
| + Other claims | $179M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $7.9B | 23.4× EBITDA of $336M |
| Fees | $158M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.2B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $363M | $141M | −$116M | $2.0B |
| Year 2 | $2.3B | $388M | $150M | −$121M | $2.1B |
| Year 3 | $2.4B | $409M | $160M | −$125M | $2.2B |
| Year 4 | $2.5B | $426M | $169M | −$130M | $2.3B |
| Year 5 | $2.6B | $439M | $179M | −$135M | $2.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.0B | |
| − Debt left | $2.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.89× | on $6.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $42.87; the IRR reaches 20% at $27.48 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $47.16 | 2.0% |
| 20% | $51.44 | −0.3% |
| 30% | $55.73 | −2.3% |
| 40% | $60.02 | −4.1% |
| 50% | $64.30 | −5.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $336M | 16.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $145M | |
| Capital spending | $286M | |
| Debt | $200M | |
| Cash | $195M | |
| Share price | $42.87 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dutch Bros would cost about $56.80 a share, $7.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $51.44 | $7.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $56.80 | $7.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $65.08 | $9.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Dutch Bros' latest quarter
Dutch Bros, Q3 2026: revenue $550M (+30% year over year), operating margin 9.6%, net earnings $27.2M, operating cash flow $100M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Dutch Bros being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Dutch Bros?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($55.73 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $27.48 a share (−36% against today's $42.87).
What would a takeover of Dutch Bros cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dutch Bros would cost about $56.80 a share, $7.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.