Filing Flows › Boston Scientific (BSX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Boston Scientific (BSX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($58.03 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $35.14 a share (−21% against today's $44.64). At $95.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $58.03 | today's $44.64 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,452.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $84.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $12.0B | |
| − Cash | $609M | |
| + Other claims | $243M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $95.8B | 17.9× EBITDA of $5.4B |
| Fees | $1.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $29.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $68.3B | 70% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $22.8B | $5.8B | $2.3B | $2.2B | $27.3B |
| Year 2 | $24.3B | $6.2B | $2.1B | $2.6B | $24.7B |
| Year 3 | $25.6B | $6.5B | $1.9B | $3.1B | $21.7B |
| Year 4 | $26.7B | $6.8B | $1.7B | $3.5B | $18.2B |
| Year 5 | $27.5B | $7.0B | $1.4B | $3.9B | $14.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $99.8B | |
| − Debt left | $14.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $85.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.25× | on $68.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $44.64; the IRR reaches 20% at $35.14 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $49.10 | 9.2% |
| 20% | $53.57 | 6.8% |
| 30% | $58.03 | 4.6% |
| 40% | $62.50 | 2.7% |
| 50% | $66.96 | 1.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $21.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $5.4B | 25.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $903M | |
| Debt | $12.0B | |
| Cash | $609M | |
| Share price | $44.64 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Boston Scientific would cost about $60.26 a share, $87.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $54.46 | $79.1B |
| Median | 35% | $60.26 | $87.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $64.73 | $94.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Boston Scientific's latest quarter
Boston Scientific, Q3 2026: revenue $5.1B (+1% year over year), operating margin 16.1%, net earnings $580M, operating cash flow $1.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Boston Scientific being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Boston Scientific?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($58.03 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $35.14 a share (−21% against today's $44.64). At $95.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Boston Scientific cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Boston Scientific would cost about $60.26 a share, $87.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.