Filing Flows › Peabody Energy (BTU) › Takeover & LBO
Is Peabody Energy (BTU) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.83 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $28.83 | today's $22.18 plus 30% |
| × shares | 122.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $297M | |
| − Cash | $434M | |
| + Other claims | $44.5M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.4B | 14.9× EBITDA of $229M |
| Fees | $68.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.2B | 64% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.2B | $237M | $96.5M | −$298M | $1.6B |
| Year 2 | $4.4B | $245M | $119M | −$327M | $1.9B |
| Year 3 | $4.5B | $253M | $144M | −$359M | $2.2B |
| Year 4 | $4.6B | $260M | $172M | −$392M | $2.6B |
| Year 5 | $4.8B | $268M | $202M | −$429M | $3.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.1B | |
| − Debt left | $3.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$9.6M | |
| Money multiple | -0.00× | on $2.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $22.18.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $24.40 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $26.62 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $28.83 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $31.05 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $33.27 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $229M | 5.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $414M | |
| Capital spending | $411M | |
| Debt | $297M | |
| Cash | $434M | |
| Share price | $22.18 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Peabody Energy would cost about $29.39 a share, $3.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $26.62 | $3.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $29.39 | $3.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $33.67 | $4.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Peabody Energy's latest quarter
Peabody Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (+8% year over year), operating margin -3.9%, net loss $28.9M, operating cash flow −$1.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Peabody Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Peabody Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.83 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Peabody Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Peabody Energy would cost about $29.39 a share, $3.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.