Filing Flows › BWX Technologies (BWXT) › Takeover & LBO
Is BWX Technologies (BWXT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($169.91 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $82.47 a share (−37% against today's $130.70). Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $169.91 | today's $130.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 92.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $15.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.0B | |
| − Cash | $569M | |
| + Other claims | −$60K | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $17.1B | 30.1× EBITDA of $568M |
| Fees | $342M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $14.3B | 82% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.9B | $614M | $239M | $81.6M | $3.0B |
| Year 2 | $4.2B | $655M | $233M | $110M | $2.9B |
| Year 3 | $4.4B | $691M | $224M | $139M | $2.8B |
| Year 4 | $4.6B | $721M | $214M | $166M | $2.6B |
| Year 5 | $4.7B | $742M | $201M | $193M | $2.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 23.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $17.6B | |
| − Debt left | $2.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $15.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $14.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $130.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $82.47 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $143.77 | 5.1% |
| 20% | $156.84 | 3.0% |
| 30% | $169.91 | 1.2% |
| 40% | $182.98 | −0.5% |
| 50% | $196.05 | −2.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $568M | 15.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $123M | |
| Capital spending | $206M | |
| Debt | $2.0B | |
| Cash | $569M | |
| Share price | $130.70 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BWX Technologies would cost about $182.98 a share, $16.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $149.91 | $13.8B |
| Median | 40% | $182.98 | $16.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $209.38 | $19.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
BWX Technologies' latest quarter
BWX Technologies, Q3 2026: revenue $953M (+10% year over year), operating margin 13.9%, net earnings $102M, operating cash flow $203M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is BWX Technologies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy BWX Technologies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($169.91 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $82.47 a share (−37% against today's $130.70).
What would a takeover of BWX Technologies cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, BWX Technologies would cost about $182.98 a share, $16.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.