Filing Flows › Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($146.43 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $73.26 a share (−35% against today's $112.64). Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $146.43 | today's $112.64 plus 30% |
| × shares | 51.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.1B | |
| − Cash | $249M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.4B | 23.6× EBITDA of $357M |
| Fees | $168M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.6B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.3B | $385M | $150M | $7.2M | $2.0B |
| Year 2 | $4.6B | $410M | $150M | $21.8M | $1.9B |
| Year 3 | $4.9B | $433M | $148M | $36.9M | $1.9B |
| Year 4 | $5.1B | $451M | $145M | $52.0M | $1.8B |
| Year 5 | $5.2B | $464M | $141M | $66.8M | $1.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $6.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $112.64; the IRR reaches 20% at $73.26 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $123.90 | 4.9% |
| 20% | $135.17 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $146.43 | 0.9% |
| 40% | $157.70 | −0.8% |
| 50% | $168.96 | −2.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $357M | 8.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $115M | |
| Capital spending | $169M | |
| Debt | $1.1B | |
| Cash | $249M | |
| Share price | $112.64 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cheesecake Factory would cost about $149.25 a share, $7.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $135.17 | $7.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $149.25 | $7.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $170.99 | $8.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.84× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Cheesecake Factory's latest quarter
Cheesecake Factory, Q3 2026: revenue $1.0B (+14% year over year), operating margin 7.2%, net earnings $61.3M, operating cash flow $125M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Cheesecake Factory being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Cheesecake Factory?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($146.43 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $73.26 a share (−35% against today's $112.64).
What would a takeover of Cheesecake Factory cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cheesecake Factory would cost about $149.25 a share, $7.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.