Filing Flows › Calix (CALX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Calix (CALX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($48.41 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.05× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $48.41 | today's $37.24 plus 30% |
| × shares | 64.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $194M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.9B | 37.4× EBITDA of $78.3M |
| Fees | $58.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $431M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.6B | 86% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $84.5M | $32.9M | $9.2M | $421M |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $90.2M | $32.2M | $13.5M | $408M |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $95.2M | $31.2M | $17.9M | $390M |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $99.3M | $29.8M | $22.5M | $367M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $102M | $28.1M | $26.9M | $341M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.9B | |
| − Debt left | $341M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $2.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $37.24.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $40.96 | 4.2% |
| 20% | $44.69 | 1.9% |
| 30% | $48.41 | −0.1% |
| 40% | $52.14 | −1.9% |
| 50% | $55.86 | −3.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $78.3M | 6.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $17.9M | |
| Capital spending | $24.1M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $194M | |
| Share price | $37.24 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Calix would cost about $49.34 a share, $3.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $44.69 | $2.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $49.34 | $3.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $56.53 | $3.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.05× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Calix's latest quarter
Calix, Q3 2026: revenue $302M (+14% year over year), operating margin 5.5%, net earnings $10.2M, operating cash flow $6.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Calix being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Calix?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($48.41 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Calix cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Calix would cost about $49.34 a share, $3.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.