Filing Flows › Cameco (CCJ) › Takeover & LBO
Is Cameco (CCJ) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($102.18 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $43.49 a share (−45% against today's $78.60).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $102.18 | today's $78.60 plus 30% |
| × shares | 435.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $44.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $44.5B | 48.8× EBITDA of $911M |
| Fees | $890M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $40.4B | 89% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.6B | $939M | $383M | $141M | $4.9B |
| Year 2 | $3.7B | $967M | $373M | $162M | $4.7B |
| Year 3 | $3.8B | $996M | $360M | $184M | $4.5B |
| Year 4 | $3.9B | $1.0B | $346M | $209M | $4.3B |
| Year 5 | $4.0B | $1.1B | $330M | $235M | $4.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 37.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $39.7B | |
| − Debt left | $4.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $35.6B | |
| Money multiple | 0.88× | on $40.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $78.60; the IRR reaches 20% at $43.49 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $86.46 | 1.3% |
| 20% | $94.32 | −0.7% |
| 30% | $102.18 | −2.5% |
| 40% | $110.04 | −4.1% |
| 50% | $117.90 | −5.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $911M | 26.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $293M | |
| Capital spending | $333M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $78.60 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cameco would cost about $104.14 a share, $45.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $94.32 | $41.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $104.14 | $45.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $119.31 | $52.0B |
Cameco's latest quarter
Cameco, FY2025: revenue $3.5B (+11% year over year), operating margin 17.8%, net earnings $590M, operating cash flow $1.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Cameco being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Cameco?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($102.18 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $43.49 a share (−45% against today's $78.60).
What would a takeover of Cameco cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cameco would cost about $104.14 a share, $45.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.