Filing Flows › Crown Holdings (CCK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Crown Holdings (CCK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($157.19 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $112.12 a share (−7% against today's $120.92). Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.37× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $157.19 | today's $120.92 plus 30% |
| × shares | 108.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $17.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.9B | |
| − Cash | $629M | |
| + Other claims | $526M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $22.8B | 10.8× EBITDA of $2.1B |
| Fees | $455M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $11.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $11.6B | 50% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $14.9B | $2.3B | $888M | $469M | $11.1B |
| Year 2 | $15.9B | $2.4B | $852M | $590M | $10.5B |
| Year 3 | $16.7B | $2.6B | $807M | $709M | $9.8B |
| Year 4 | $17.5B | $2.7B | $753M | $825M | $9.0B |
| Year 5 | $18.0B | $2.8B | $689M | $935M | $8.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $24.6B | |
| − Debt left | $8.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $16.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.42× | on $11.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $120.92; the IRR reaches 20% at $112.12 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $133.01 | 13.1% |
| 20% | $145.10 | 10.0% |
| 30% | $157.19 | 7.3% |
| 40% | $169.28 | 5.0% |
| 50% | $181.37 | 3.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $13.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.1B | 15.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $465M | |
| Capital spending | $542M | |
| Debt | $5.9B | |
| Cash | $629M | |
| Share price | $120.92 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Crown Holdings would cost about $169.28 a share, $18.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $138.69 | $15.0B |
| Median | 40% | $169.28 | $18.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $193.71 | $21.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.37× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Crown Holdings' latest quarter
Crown Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $3.7B (+16% year over year), operating margin 11.9%, net earnings $225M, operating cash flow $406M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Crown Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Crown Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($157.19 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $112.12 a share (−7% against today's $120.92).
What would a takeover of Crown Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Crown Holdings would cost about $169.28 a share, $18.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.