Filing Flows › CareDx (CDNA) › Takeover & LBO
Is CareDx (CDNA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($82.77 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 7.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.51× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $82.77 | today's $63.67 plus 30% |
| × shares | 55.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $374M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.2B | 31.9× EBITDA of $131M |
| Fees | $83.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $720M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.5B | 83% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $537M | $141M | $55.1M | $73.8M | $646M |
| Year 2 | $573M | $151M | $49.4M | $87.7M | $558M |
| Year 3 | $605M | $159M | $42.7M | $101M | $457M |
| Year 4 | $631M | $166M | $35.0M | $115M | $342M |
| Year 5 | $650M | $171M | $26.2M | $128M | $214M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 23.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.1B | |
| − Debt left | $214M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.09× | on $3.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $63.67.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $70.04 | 6.5% |
| 20% | $76.40 | 4.0% |
| 30% | $82.77 | 1.8% |
| 40% | $89.14 | −0.1% |
| 50% | $95.50 | −1.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $497M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $131M | 26.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $14.4M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $374M | |
| Share price | $63.67 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CareDx would cost about $85.95 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $77.68 | $4.3B |
| Median | 35% | $85.95 | $4.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $92.32 | $5.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 7.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.51× the average). Its figures put it in decile 10 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
CareDx's latest quarter
CareDx, Q3 2026: revenue $139M (+39% year over year), operating margin 5.8%, net earnings $19.3M, operating cash flow $12.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is CareDx being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy CareDx?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($82.77 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of CareDx cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CareDx would cost about $85.95 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.