Filing Flows › Central Garden & Pet (CENT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Central Garden & Pet (CENT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($59.25 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $36.86 a share (−19% against today's $45.58). Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $59.25 | today's $45.58 plus 30% |
| × shares | 61.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.2B | |
| − Cash | $997M | |
| + Other claims | $1.2M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.9B | 11.7× EBITDA of $332M |
| Fees | $77.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.1B | 54% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.0B | $328M | $140M | $118M | $1.7B |
| Year 2 | $3.0B | $327M | $131M | $125M | $1.6B |
| Year 3 | $3.1B | $330M | $121M | $131M | $1.5B |
| Year 4 | $3.1B | $337M | $111M | $140M | $1.3B |
| Year 5 | $3.2B | $347M | $100M | $152M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.2B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.94× | on $2.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $45.58; the IRR reaches 20% at $36.86 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $50.14 | 5.3% |
| 20% | $54.70 | 1.8% |
| 30% | $59.25 | −1.1% |
| 40% | $63.81 | −3.6% |
| 50% | $68.37 | −5.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $332M | 10.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $81.8M | |
| Capital spending | $44.7M | |
| Debt | $1.2B | |
| Cash | $997M | |
| Share price | $45.58 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Central Garden & Pet would cost about $63.81 a share, $4.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $52.28 | $3.2B |
| Median | 40% | $63.81 | $4.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $73.02 | $4.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Central Garden & Pet's latest quarter
Central Garden & Pet, Q3 FY26: revenue $882M (-8% year over year), operating margin 14.3%, net earnings $90.0M, operating cash flow $327M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Central Garden & Pet being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Central Garden & Pet?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($59.25 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $36.86 a share (−19% against today's $45.58).
What would a takeover of Central Garden & Pet cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Central Garden & Pet would cost about $63.81 a share, $4.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.