Filing Flows › Century Aluminum (CENX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Century Aluminum (CENX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($43.81 a share) would return about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $43.81 | today's $33.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 105.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $480M | |
| − Cash | $713M | |
| + Other claims | $135M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.5B | 4.5× EBITDA of $1.0B |
| Fees | $90.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.9B | 2.9× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.7B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.2B | $1.1B | $224M | $379M | $2.6B |
| Year 2 | $3.5B | $1.2B | $195M | $440M | $2.1B |
| Year 3 | $3.6B | $1.2B | $162M | $499M | $1.6B |
| Year 4 | $3.8B | $1.3B | $123M | $556M | $1.1B |
| Year 5 | $3.9B | $1.3B | $80.9M | $610M | $448M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.5B | |
| − Debt left | $448M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.1B | |
| Money multiple | 2.43× | on $1.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 19.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $33.70.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $37.07 | 27.0% |
| 20% | $40.44 | 23.1% |
| 30% | $43.81 | 19.4% |
| 40% | $47.18 | 15.8% |
| 50% | $50.55 | 12.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.0B | 33.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $82.7M | |
| Capital spending | $207M | |
| Debt | $480M | |
| Cash | $713M | |
| Share price | $33.70 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Century Aluminum would cost about $44.65 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $40.44 | $4.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $44.65 | $4.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $51.16 | $5.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Century Aluminum's latest quarter
Century Aluminum, Q3 2026: revenue $961M (+52% year over year), operating margin 30.4%, net earnings $303M, operating cash flow $395M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Century Aluminum being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Century Aluminum?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($43.81 a share) would return about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Century Aluminum cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Century Aluminum would cost about $44.65 a share, $4.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.