Filing Flows › Charter Communications (CHTR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Charter Communications (CHTR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($154.24 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $143.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. It already carries 7.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $154.24 | today's $118.64 plus 30% |
| × shares | 116.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $18.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $107.1B | |
| − Cash | $573M | |
| + Other claims | $18.8B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $143.4B | 9.4× EBITDA of $15.2B |
| Fees | $2.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $83.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $62.5B | 43% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $56.2B | $15.4B | $6.4B | −$3.3B | $87.1B |
| Year 2 | $57.0B | $15.6B | $6.7B | −$3.5B | $90.6B |
| Year 3 | $58.2B | $15.9B | $6.9B | −$3.8B | $94.3B |
| Year 4 | $59.6B | $16.3B | $7.2B | −$4.0B | $98.3B |
| Year 5 | $61.4B | $16.8B | $7.5B | −$4.2B | $102.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $153.6B | |
| − Debt left | $102.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $51.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.82× | on $62.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $118.64.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $130.51 | −3.1% |
| 20% | $142.37 | −3.5% |
| 30% | $154.24 | −3.9% |
| 40% | $166.10 | −4.4% |
| 50% | $177.97 | −4.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $55.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $15.2B | 27.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $9.2B | |
| Capital spending | $12.1B | |
| Debt | $107.1B | |
| Cash | $573M | |
| Share price | $118.64 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Charter Communications would cost about $157.20 a share, $18.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $142.37 | $16.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $157.20 | $18.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $180.10 | $21.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Charter Communications' latest quarter
Charter Communications, Q3 2026: revenue $14.9B (+9% year over year), operating margin -23.6%, net loss $2.7B, operating cash flow $4.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Charter Communications being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Charter Communications?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($154.24 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $143.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. It already carries 7.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Charter Communications cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Charter Communications would cost about $157.20 a share, $18.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.