Filing Flows › Clearfield (CLFD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Clearfield (CLFD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($38.99 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 11.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (2.23× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $38.99 | today's $29.99 plus 30% |
| × shares | 13.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $530M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $101M | |
| = Enterprise value | $429M | 74.8× EBITDA of $5.7M |
| Fees | $8.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $31.5M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $406M | 93% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $166M | $6.2M | $2.4M | −$1.9M | $33.4M |
| Year 2 | $177M | $6.6M | $2.6M | −$1.8M | $35.3M |
| Year 3 | $187M | $7.0M | $2.7M | −$1.7M | $37.0M |
| Year 4 | $195M | $7.3M | $2.8M | −$1.6M | $38.6M |
| Year 5 | $201M | $7.5M | $3.0M | −$1.4M | $40.0M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 53.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $400M | |
| − Debt left | $40.0M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $360M | |
| Money multiple | 0.89× | on $406M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $29.99.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $32.99 | 2.2% |
| 20% | $35.99 | −0.2% |
| 30% | $38.99 | −2.4% |
| 40% | $41.99 | −4.2% |
| 50% | $44.98 | −5.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $154M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $5.7M | 3.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $6.1M | |
| Capital spending | $4.1M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $101M | |
| Share price | $29.99 | on Oct 15, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Clearfield would cost about $38.99 a share, $530M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $33.59 | $457M |
| Median | 30% | $38.99 | $530M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $39.29 | $534M |
The odds, from history
Historically 11.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (2.23× the average). Its figures put it in decile 10 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Clearfield's latest quarter
Clearfield, Q3 FY26: revenue $43.9M (+13% year over year), operating margin 5.9%, net earnings $3.0M, operating cash flow $9.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Clearfield being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Clearfield?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($38.99 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Clearfield cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Clearfield would cost about $38.99 a share, $530M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.