Filing Flows › Calumet (CLMT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Calumet (CLMT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($51.58 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $23.97 a share (−40% against today's $39.68). It already carries 6.1× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 6.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.26× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $51.58 | today's $39.68 plus 30% |
| × shares | 88.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.2B | |
| − Cash | $225M | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.5B | 20.4× EBITDA of $318M |
| Fees | $130M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.9B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.6B | $343M | $134M | $72.2M | $1.7B |
| Year 2 | $6.0B | $366M | $128M | $95.0M | $1.6B |
| Year 3 | $6.3B | $386M | $121M | $119M | $1.5B |
| Year 4 | $6.6B | $403M | $112M | $142M | $1.3B |
| Year 5 | $6.8B | $415M | $101M | $166M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.1B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.22× | on $4.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $39.68; the IRR reaches 20% at $23.97 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $43.65 | 7.4% |
| 20% | $47.62 | 5.7% |
| 30% | $51.58 | 4.1% |
| 40% | $55.55 | 2.6% |
| 50% | $59.52 | 1.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $318M | 6.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $140M | |
| Capital spending | $77.1M | |
| Debt | $2.2B | |
| Cash | $225M | |
| Share price | $39.68 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Calumet would cost about $52.58 a share, $4.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $47.62 | $4.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $52.58 | $4.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $60.23 | $5.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.26× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Calumet's latest quarter
Calumet, Q3 2026: revenue $1.7B (+56% year over year), operating margin 27.0%, net earnings $256M, operating cash flow $218M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Calumet being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Calumet?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($51.58 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $23.97 a share (−40% against today's $39.68). It already carries 6.1× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Calumet cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Calumet would cost about $52.58 a share, $4.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.