Filing Flows › CME Group (CME) › Takeover & LBO
Is CME Group (CME) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($399.11 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $140.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $399.11 | today's $307.01 plus 30% |
| × shares | 358.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $143.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $2.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $140.8B | 30.1× EBITDA of $4.7B |
| Fees | $2.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $25.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $117.9B | 82% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.5B | $5.1B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $23.5B |
| Year 2 | $8.0B | $5.4B | $1.8B | $2.6B | $20.9B |
| Year 3 | $8.5B | $5.7B | $1.6B | $3.0B | $17.9B |
| Year 4 | $8.8B | $5.9B | $1.4B | $3.4B | $14.5B |
| Year 5 | $9.1B | $6.1B | $1.1B | $3.7B | $10.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 23.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $140.8B | |
| − Debt left | $10.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $130.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.10× | on $117.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $307.01.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $337.71 | 6.4% |
| 20% | $368.41 | 4.0% |
| 30% | $399.11 | 2.0% |
| 40% | $429.81 | 0.1% |
| 50% | $460.51 | −1.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.7B | 67.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $108M | |
| Capital spending | $93.7M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $2.3B | |
| Share price | $307.01 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CME Group would cost about $352.75 a share, $126.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $336.18 | $120.6B |
| Median | 14.9% | $352.75 | $126.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $410.17 | $147.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
CME Group's latest quarter
CME Group, Q3 2026: revenue $1.7B (+13% year over year), operating margin 65.7%, net earnings $1.0B, operating cash flow $1.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is CME Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy CME Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($399.11 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $140.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of CME Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CME Group would cost about $352.75 a share, $126.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.