Filing Flows › CenterPoint Energy (CNP) › Takeover & LBO
Is CenterPoint Energy (CNP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.42 a share) would return a loss of about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $9.19 a share (−77% against today's $40.33). Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $52.42 | today's $40.33 plus 30% |
| × shares | 664.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $34.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $20.6B | |
| − Cash | $557M | |
| = Enterprise value | $54.8B | 13.3× EBITDA of $4.1B |
| Fees | $1.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $22.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $33.3B | 60% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.6B | $4.4B | $1.7B | −$3.6B | $26.3B |
| Year 2 | $11.3B | $4.7B | $2.0B | −$4.0B | $30.3B |
| Year 3 | $11.9B | $5.0B | $2.3B | −$4.4B | $34.6B |
| Year 4 | $12.4B | $5.2B | $2.6B | −$4.7B | $39.3B |
| Year 5 | $12.8B | $5.4B | $3.0B | −$5.1B | $44.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $60.8B | |
| − Debt left | $44.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $16.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.49× | on $33.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −13.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $40.33; the IRR reaches 20% at $9.19 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $44.36 | −10.0% |
| 20% | $48.39 | −11.7% |
| 30% | $52.42 | −13.2% |
| 40% | $56.45 | −14.6% |
| 50% | $60.49 | −15.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.1B | 41.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.7B | |
| Capital spending | $5.7B | |
| Debt | $20.6B | |
| Cash | $557M | |
| Share price | $40.33 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CenterPoint Energy would cost about $53.43 a share, $35.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $48.39 | $32.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $53.43 | $35.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $61.21 | $40.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
CenterPoint Energy's latest quarter
CenterPoint Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $2.2B (+10% year over year), operating margin 30.4%, net earnings $331M, operating cash flow $991M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is CenterPoint Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy CenterPoint Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($52.42 a share) would return a loss of about 13% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $9.19 a share (−77% against today's $40.33).
What would a takeover of CenterPoint Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CenterPoint Energy would cost about $53.43 a share, $35.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.