Filing Flows › Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($268.80 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $160.90 a share (−22% against today's $206.77). Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $268.80 | today's $206.77 plus 30% |
| × shares | 66.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $17.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.5B | |
| − Cash | $312M | |
| = Enterprise value | $20.1B | 16.4× EBITDA of $1.2B |
| Fees | $402M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $13.7B | 67% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.4B | $1.3B | $517M | $245M | $6.5B |
| Year 2 | $9.0B | $1.4B | $498M | $310M | $6.2B |
| Year 3 | $9.5B | $1.5B | $474M | $375M | $5.8B |
| Year 4 | $9.9B | $1.6B | $446M | $439M | $5.4B |
| Year 5 | $10.2B | $1.6B | $412M | $498M | $4.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $20.9B | |
| − Debt left | $4.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $16.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.16× | on $13.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $206.77; the IRR reaches 20% at $160.90 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $227.45 | 7.9% |
| 20% | $248.12 | 5.3% |
| 30% | $268.80 | 3.0% |
| 40% | $289.48 | 1.1% |
| 50% | $310.16 | −0.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.2B | 15.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $206M | |
| Capital spending | $322M | |
| Debt | $2.5B | |
| Cash | $312M | |
| Share price | $206.77 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Coca-Cola Consolidated would cost about $273.97 a share, $18.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $248.12 | $16.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $273.97 | $18.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $313.88 | $20.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Coca-Cola Consolidated's latest quarter
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Q3 2026: revenue $2.0B (+5% year over year), operating margin 13.7%, net earnings $176M, operating cash flow $244M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Coca-Cola Consolidated being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Coca-Cola Consolidated?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($268.80 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $160.90 a share (−22% against today's $206.77).
What would a takeover of Coca-Cola Consolidated cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Coca-Cola Consolidated would cost about $273.97 a share, $18.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.