Filing Flows › Corpay (CPAY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Corpay (CPAY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($591.31 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $355.37 a share (−22% against today's $454.85). Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $591.31 | today's $454.85 plus 30% |
| × shares | 66.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $39.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $11.2B | |
| − Cash | $3.1B | |
| + Other claims | $46.6M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $47.5B | 17.2× EBITDA of $2.8B |
| Fees | $949M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $15.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $33.2B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.6B | $3.0B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $14.0B |
| Year 2 | $6.0B | $3.2B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $12.6B |
| Year 3 | $6.4B | $3.4B | $963M | $1.6B | $11.0B |
| Year 4 | $6.6B | $3.5B | $840M | $1.8B | $9.2B |
| Year 5 | $6.8B | $3.6B | $703M | $2.0B | $7.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $50.2B | |
| − Debt left | $7.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $42.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.29× | on $33.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $454.85; the IRR reaches 20% at $355.37 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $500.34 | 9.7% |
| 20% | $545.82 | 7.3% |
| 30% | $591.31 | 5.3% |
| 40% | $636.79 | 3.4% |
| 50% | $682.28 | 1.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.8B | 52.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $465M | |
| Capital spending | $196M | |
| Debt | $11.2B | |
| Cash | $3.1B | |
| Share price | $454.85 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Corpay would cost about $636.79 a share, $42.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $521.71 | $34.6B |
| Median | 40% | $636.79 | $42.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $728.67 | $48.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Corpay's latest quarter
Corpay, Q3 2026: revenue $1.4B (+18% year over year), operating margin 45.0%, net earnings $378M, operating cash flow −$697M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Corpay being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Corpay?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($591.31 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $355.37 a share (−22% against today's $454.85).
What would a takeover of Corpay cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Corpay would cost about $636.79 a share, $42.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.