Filing Flows › Campbell's (CPB) › Takeover & LBO
Is Campbell's (CPB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($29.97 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.08 a share (−56% against today's $23.05). Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $29.97 | today's $23.05 plus 30% |
| × shares | 299.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.1B | |
| − Cash | $394M | |
| + Other claims | $2.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $15.7B | 12.4× EBITDA of $1.3B |
| Fees | $314M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $9.1B | 57% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $9.5B | $1.2B | $532M | $276M | $6.7B |
| Year 2 | $9.3B | $1.2B | $511M | $282M | $6.4B |
| Year 3 | $9.3B | $1.2B | $490M | $298M | $6.1B |
| Year 4 | $9.4B | $1.2B | $467M | $312M | $5.8B |
| Year 5 | $9.7B | $1.3B | $443M | $336M | $5.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $13.6B | |
| − Debt left | $5.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.2B | |
| Money multiple | 0.90× | on $9.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $23.05; the IRR reaches 20% at $10.08 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $25.36 | 1.3% |
| 20% | $27.66 | −0.5% |
| 30% | $29.97 | −2.1% |
| 40% | $32.27 | −3.5% |
| 50% | $34.58 | −4.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.3B | 13.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $413M | |
| Capital spending | $361M | |
| Debt | $7.1B | |
| Cash | $394M | |
| Share price | $23.05 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Campbell's would cost about $30.54 a share, $9.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $27.66 | $8.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $30.54 | $9.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $34.99 | $10.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Campbell's latest quarter
Campbell's, Q4 FY26: revenue $2.1B (-8% year over year), operating margin 0.2%, net loss $58.0M, operating cash flow $200M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Campbell's being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Campbell's?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($29.97 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.08 a share (−56% against today's $23.05).
What would a takeover of Campbell's cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Campbell's would cost about $30.54 a share, $9.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.