Filing Flows › Comstock Resources (CRK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Comstock Resources (CRK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($19.14 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.86× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $19.14 | today's $14.72 plus 30% |
| × shares | 291.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.4B | |
| − Cash | $18.6M | |
| + Other claims | $587M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $9.5B | 7.6× EBITDA of $1.3B |
| Fees | $190M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.2B | 4.9× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $3.5B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.3B | $1.4B | $473M | −$967M | $7.1B |
| Year 2 | $2.4B | $1.4B | $547M | −$1.1B | $8.2B |
| Year 3 | $2.6B | $1.5B | $628M | −$1.2B | $9.4B |
| Year 4 | $2.7B | $1.6B | $717M | −$1.3B | $10.6B |
| Year 5 | $2.8B | $1.6B | $813M | −$1.4B | $12.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.7B | |
| − Debt left | $12.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$1.3B | |
| Money multiple | -0.36× | on $3.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $14.72.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $16.19 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $17.66 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $19.14 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $20.61 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $22.08 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.3B | 59.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $652M | |
| Capital spending | $1.7B | |
| Debt | $3.4B | |
| Cash | $18.6M | |
| Share price | $14.72 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Comstock Resources would cost about $19.50 a share, $5.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $17.66 | $5.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $19.50 | $5.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $22.34 | $6.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.86× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Comstock Resources' latest quarter
Comstock Resources, Q3 2026: revenue $384M (-14% year over year), operating margin 6.0%, net earnings $22.3M, operating cash flow $180M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Comstock Resources being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Comstock Resources?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($19.14 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Comstock Resources cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Comstock Resources would cost about $19.50 a share, $5.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.