Filing Flows › Centuri Holdings (CTRI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Centuri Holdings (CTRI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($27.94 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $17.11 a share (−20% against today's $21.49). Historically 5.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.12× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $27.94 | today's $21.49 plus 30% |
| × shares | 101.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $804M | |
| − Cash | $42.0M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.6B | 13.9× EBITDA of $259M |
| Fees | $71.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.2B | 61% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.0B | $279M | $109M | $42.1M | $1.4B |
| Year 2 | $4.3B | $298M | $106M | $58.4M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $4.5B | $315M | $101M | $75.2M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $4.7B | $328M | $95.4M | $92.1M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $4.9B | $338M | $88.4M | $109M | $1.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.8B | |
| − Debt left | $1.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.25× | on $2.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $21.49; the IRR reaches 20% at $17.11 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $23.64 | 9.2% |
| 20% | $25.79 | 6.7% |
| 30% | $27.94 | 4.5% |
| 40% | $30.09 | 2.5% |
| 50% | $32.23 | 0.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $259M | 6.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $141M | |
| Capital spending | $88.4M | |
| Debt | $804M | |
| Cash | $42.0M | |
| Share price | $21.49 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Centuri Holdings would cost about $28.47 a share, $2.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $25.79 | $2.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $28.47 | $2.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $32.62 | $3.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.12× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Centuri Holdings' latest quarter
Centuri Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (+40% year over year), operating margin 5.1%, net earnings $26.9M, operating cash flow −$27.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Centuri Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Centuri Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($27.94 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $17.11 a share (−20% against today's $21.49).
What would a takeover of Centuri Holdings cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Centuri Holdings would cost about $28.47 a share, $2.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.