Filing Flows › Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) › Takeover & LBO
Is Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($10.75 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $5.83 a share (−29% against today's $8.27). Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.86× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-05): uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond Curaleaf's control, that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the response of Aurora and its board of directors to the Offer, the terms and outcome of the compe.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $10.75 | today's $8.27 plus 30% |
| × shares | 264.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $612M | |
| − Cash | $94.6M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.4B | 16.0× EBITDA of $210M |
| Fees | $67.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.3B | 66% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.4B | $216M | $88.3M | $56.4M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.4B | $223M | $84.0M | $65.1M | $1.0B |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $229M | $79.0M | $74.5M | $958M |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $236M | $73.3M | $84.8M | $874M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $243M | $66.8M | $96.1M | $778M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.1B | |
| − Debt left | $778M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $2.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $8.27; the IRR reaches 20% at $5.83 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $9.10 | 5.2% |
| 20% | $9.92 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $10.75 | 0.7% |
| 40% | $11.58 | −1.1% |
| 50% | $12.40 | −2.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $210M | 16.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $195M | |
| Capital spending | $65.6M | |
| Debt | $612M | |
| Cash | $94.6M | |
| Share price | $8.27 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Curaleaf Holdings would cost about $11.16 a share, $3.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $10.09 | $2.7B |
| Median | 35% | $11.16 | $3.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $11.99 | $3.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.86× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-05 · 8-K deal · uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond Curaleaf's control, that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the response of Aurora and its board of directors to the Offer, the terms and outcome of the compe
- 2026-11-04 · news · Curaleaf Maintains Aurora Takeover Bid After Organigram Proposal
- 2026-11-03 · news · Organigram Swoops In To Acquire Aurora Cannabis, Topping Curaleaf’s Rival Bid – ACB Stock Surges To Over 10-Month Highs
- 2026-11-03 · news · Organigram to acquire Aurora Cannabis in $400 million deal, topping Curaleaf bid
- 2026-11-03 · news · Curaleaf Slams Aurora Board Over Organigram Acquisition, Says Its Takeover Bid Remains Active
- 2026-10-27 · news · Curaleaf Remains Open to Engaging with Takeover Target Aurora Amid Dispute
- 2026-10-22 · news · Aurora Rejects Curaleaf’s Revised Hostile Takeover Bid
- 2026-10-19 · news · Curaleaf pushes back after Aurora rejects enhanced takeover bid
Curaleaf Holdings' latest quarter
Curaleaf Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $353M (+11% year over year), operating margin 0.8%, net loss $32.7M, operating cash flow $21.1M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Curaleaf Holdings being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-05: uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond Curaleaf's control, that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the response of Aurora and its board of directors to the Offer, the terms and outcome of the compe. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Curaleaf Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($10.75 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $5.83 a share (−29% against today's $8.27).
What would a takeover of Curaleaf Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Curaleaf Holdings would cost about $11.16 a share, $3.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.