Filing Flows › Cavco Industries (CVCO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Cavco Industries (CVCO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($804.70 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $804.70 | today's $619.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 7.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $6.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.4M | |
| − Cash | $289M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.9B | 23.3× EBITDA of $255M |
| Fees | $119M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.7B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.6B | $275M | $107M | $38.3M | $1.4B |
| Year 2 | $2.8B | $294M | $104M | $51.6M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $2.9B | $310M | $100M | $65.1M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $3.0B | $323M | $95.4M | $78.4M | $1.2B |
| Year 5 | $3.1B | $333M | $89.4M | $91.1M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.9B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $4.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $619.00.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $680.90 | 5.5% |
| 20% | $742.80 | 2.9% |
| 30% | $804.70 | 0.6% |
| 40% | $866.60 | −1.4% |
| 50% | $928.50 | −3.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $255M | 10.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $26.1M | |
| Capital spending | $71.7M | |
| Debt | $7.4M | |
| Cash | $289M | |
| Share price | $619.00 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cavco Industries would cost about $820.17 a share, $6.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $742.80 | $5.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $820.17 | $6.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $939.64 | $7.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Cavco Industries' latest quarter
Cavco Industries, Q2 FY27: revenue $656M (+18% year over year), operating margin 10.6%, net earnings $55.4M, operating cash flow $96.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Cavco Industries being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Cavco Industries?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($804.70 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Cavco Industries cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Cavco Industries would cost about $820.17 a share, $6.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.