Filing Flows › CVR Energy (CVI) › Takeover & LBO
Is CVR Energy (CVI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($48.74 a share) would return about 18% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $46.33 a share (24% against today's $37.49). Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-03): CVR Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $48.74 | today's $37.49 plus 30% |
| × shares | 100.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.7B | |
| − Cash | $1.3B | |
| + Other claims | $172M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $5.5B | 5.8× EBITDA of $944M |
| Fees | $110M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.6B | 3.8× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $2.0B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.6B | $1.0B | $273M | $359M | $3.2B |
| Year 2 | $11.3B | $1.1B | $246M | $429M | $2.8B |
| Year 3 | $11.9B | $1.1B | $213M | $501M | $2.3B |
| Year 4 | $12.4B | $1.2B | $175M | $571M | $1.7B |
| Year 5 | $12.8B | $1.2B | $131M | $640M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 4.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.6B | |
| Money multiple | 2.28× | on $2.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 17.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $37.49; the IRR reaches 20% at $46.33 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $41.24 | 24.6% |
| 20% | $44.99 | 21.2% |
| 30% | $48.74 | 17.9% |
| 40% | $52.49 | 14.7% |
| 50% | $56.23 | 11.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $944M | 9.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $382M | |
| Capital spending | $207M | |
| Debt | $1.7B | |
| Cash | $1.3B | |
| Share price | $37.49 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CVR Energy would cost about $49.67 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $44.99 | $4.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $49.67 | $5.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $56.91 | $5.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-03 · 8-K deal · CVR Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
- 2026-11-03 · 8-K deal · CVR ENERGY ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION
CVR Energy's latest quarter
CVR Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $3.3B (+69% year over year), operating margin 22.1%, net earnings $570M, operating cash flow $655M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is CVR Energy being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-03: CVR Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy CVR Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($48.74 a share) would return about 18% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $46.33 a share (24% against today's $37.49).
What would a takeover of CVR Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, CVR Energy would cost about $49.67 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.