Filing Flows › Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($40.20 a share) would return a loss of about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $16.34 a share (−47% against today's $30.92).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $40.20 | today's $30.92 plus 30% |
| × shares | 26.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $285M | |
| − Cash | $3.7M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.4B | 13.7× EBITDA of $98.5M |
| Fees | $27.0M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $542M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $835M | 61% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.4B | $106M | $41.5M | −$61.5M | $604M |
| Year 2 | $1.5B | $114M | $46.2M | −$66.0M | $670M |
| Year 3 | $1.6B | $120M | $51.2M | −$70.4M | $740M |
| Year 4 | $1.6B | $125M | $56.6M | −$74.7M | $815M |
| Year 5 | $1.7B | $129M | $62.3M | −$79.0M | $894M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.4B | |
| − Debt left | $894M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $548M | |
| Money multiple | 0.66× | on $835M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −8.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $30.92; the IRR reaches 20% at $16.34 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $34.01 | −3.9% |
| 20% | $37.10 | −6.1% |
| 30% | $40.20 | −8.1% |
| 40% | $43.29 | −9.8% |
| 50% | $46.38 | −11.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $98.5M | 7.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $95.1M | |
| Capital spending | $108M | |
| Debt | $285M | |
| Cash | $3.7M | |
| Share price | $30.92 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Covenant Logistics Group would cost about $43.29 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $35.47 | $943M |
| Median | 40% | $43.29 | $1.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $49.53 | $1.3B |
Covenant Logistics Group's latest quarter
Covenant Logistics Group, Q3 2026: revenue $354M (+19% year over year), operating margin 3.5%, net earnings $10.7M, operating cash flow $26.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Covenant Logistics Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Covenant Logistics Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($40.20 a share) would return a loss of about 8% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $16.34 a share (−47% against today's $30.92).
What would a takeover of Covenant Logistics Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Covenant Logistics Group would cost about $43.29 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.