Filing Flows › Clearway Energy (CWEN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Clearway Energy (CWEN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($41.64 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.30 a share (−80% against today's $32.03). It already carries 8.9× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $41.64 | today's $32.03 plus 30% |
| × shares | 205.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $8.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $8.7B | |
| − Cash | $251M | |
| + Other claims | $3.6B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $20.6B | 21.8× EBITDA of $945M |
| Fees | $412M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $15.8B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $1.0B | $398M | $237M | $5.0B |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $1.1B | $379M | $300M | $4.7B |
| Year 3 | $1.9B | $1.1B | $357M | $362M | $4.3B |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $1.2B | $329M | $423M | $3.9B |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $1.2B | $297M | $480M | $3.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $24.3B | |
| − Debt left | $3.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $20.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.32× | on $15.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $32.03; the IRR reaches 20% at $6.30 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $35.23 | 7.7% |
| 20% | $38.44 | 6.7% |
| 30% | $41.64 | 5.8% |
| 40% | $44.84 | 4.9% |
| 50% | $48.05 | 4.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $945M | 60.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $734M | |
| Capital spending | $346M | |
| Debt | $8.7B | |
| Cash | $251M | |
| Share price | $32.03 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Clearway Energy would cost about $42.44 a share, $8.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $38.44 | $7.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $42.44 | $8.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $48.62 | $10.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.56× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Clearway Energy's latest quarter
Clearway Energy, Q2 2026: revenue $481M (+23% year over year), operating margin 24.1%, net earnings $122M, operating cash flow $214M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Clearway Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Clearway Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($41.64 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.30 a share (−80% against today's $32.03). It already carries 8.9× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Clearway Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Clearway Energy would cost about $42.44 a share, $8.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.