Filing Flows › Dominion Energy (D) › Takeover & LBO
Is Dominion Energy (D) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($90.53 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $44.11 a share (−37% against today's $69.64). At $134.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. It already carries 7.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average). Latest signal (2026-07-28): Agreed sale to NextEra Energy · pending.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $90.53 | today's $69.64 plus 30% |
| × shares | 880.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $79.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $49.4B | |
| − Cash | $351M | |
| + Other claims | $5.6B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $134.3B | 19.1× EBITDA of $7.0B |
| Fees | $2.7B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $38.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $98.4B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $18.8B | $7.6B | $3.0B | $4.2B | $34.4B |
| Year 2 | $20.1B | $8.1B | $2.6B | $4.9B | $29.5B |
| Year 3 | $21.2B | $8.5B | $2.3B | $5.7B | $23.8B |
| Year 4 | $22.1B | $8.9B | $1.8B | $6.4B | $17.4B |
| Year 5 | $22.8B | $9.2B | $1.3B | $7.1B | $10.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $151.4B | |
| − Debt left | $10.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $141.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.43× | on $98.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $69.64; the IRR reaches 20% at $44.11 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $76.60 | 10.4% |
| 20% | $83.57 | 8.9% |
| 30% | $90.53 | 7.5% |
| 40% | $97.50 | 6.2% |
| 50% | $104.46 | 4.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $17.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.0B | 40.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.4B | |
| Debt | $49.4B | |
| Cash | $351M | |
| Share price | $69.64 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 15% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dominion Energy would cost about $92.27 a share, $81.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $83.57 | $73.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $92.27 | $81.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $105.71 | $93.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-07-28 · deal · Agreed sale to NextEra Energy · pending
- 2026-07-28 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
Dominion Energy's latest quarter
Dominion Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $5.6B (+24% year over year), operating margin 32.8%, net earnings $1.2B, operating cash flow $2.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Dominion Energy being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-07-28: Agreed sale to NextEra Energy · pending. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Dominion Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($90.53 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $44.11 a share (−37% against today's $69.64). At $134.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. It already carries 7.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Dominion Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dominion Energy would cost about $92.27 a share, $81.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.