Filing Flows › Dana (DAN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Dana (DAN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.39 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $16.55 a share (−24% against today's $21.84). Historically 5.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.1× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-05): Merger proxy (DEFM14A).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $28.39 | today's $21.84 plus 30% |
| × shares | 105.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.6B | |
| − Cash | $321M | |
| + Other claims | $60.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.3B | 7.2× EBITDA of $597M |
| Fees | $86.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.8B | 4.7× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.6B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.2B | $627M | $214M | $7.4M | $2.8B |
| Year 2 | $8.5B | $656M | $214M | $18.9M | $2.8B |
| Year 3 | $8.9B | $682M | $212M | $31.0M | $2.7B |
| Year 4 | $9.2B | $706M | $210M | $43.4M | $2.7B |
| Year 5 | $9.5B | $727M | $207M | $56.0M | $2.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.4B | |
| − Debt left | $2.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.11× | on $1.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $21.84; the IRR reaches 20% at $16.55 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $24.02 | 8.6% |
| 20% | $26.21 | 5.3% |
| 30% | $28.39 | 2.0% |
| 40% | $30.58 | −1.4% |
| 50% | $32.76 | −4.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $597M | 7.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $348M | |
| Capital spending | $335M | |
| Debt | $1.6B | |
| Cash | $321M | |
| Share price | $21.84 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dana would cost about $28.94 a share, $3.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $26.21 | $2.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $28.94 | $3.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $33.15 | $3.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.1× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-05 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
Dana's latest quarter
Dana, Q3 2026: revenue $2.0B (+6% year over year), operating margin 4.5%, net earnings $15.0M, operating cash flow $102M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Dana being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-05: Merger proxy (DEFM14A). A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Dana?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.39 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $16.55 a share (−24% against today's $21.84).
What would a takeover of Dana cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dana would cost about $28.94 a share, $3.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.