Filing Flows › Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($71.56 a share) would return about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $59.60 a share (8% against today's $55.05). Historically 5.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.11× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $71.56 | today's $55.05 plus 30% |
| × shares | 34.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $949M | |
| − Cash | $185M | |
| + Other claims | $7.9M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.2B | 9.7× EBITDA of $336M |
| Fees | $65.0M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.5B | 44% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.2B | $357M | $141M | $166M | $1.7B |
| Year 2 | $4.4B | $376M | $129M | $192M | $1.5B |
| Year 3 | $4.6B | $393M | $114M | $219M | $1.3B |
| Year 4 | $4.8B | $408M | $97.1M | $246M | $1.0B |
| Year 5 | $4.9B | $421M | $78.3M | $272M | $751M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.4B | |
| − Debt left | $751M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.78× | on $1.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 12.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $55.05; the IRR reaches 20% at $59.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $60.55 | 19.3% |
| 20% | $66.06 | 15.4% |
| 30% | $71.56 | 12.2% |
| 40% | $77.07 | 9.4% |
| 50% | $82.57 | 7.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $336M | 8.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $124M | |
| Debt | $949M | |
| Cash | $185M | |
| Share price | $55.05 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Diebold Nixdorf would cost about $71.56 a share, $2.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $61.66 | $2.1B |
| Median | 30% | $71.56 | $2.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $72.12 | $2.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.11× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Diebold Nixdorf's latest quarter
Diebold Nixdorf, Q3 2026: revenue $994M (+5% year over year), operating margin 3.9%, net earnings $7.1M, operating cash flow −$47.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Diebold Nixdorf being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Diebold Nixdorf?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($71.56 a share) would return about 12% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $59.60 a share (8% against today's $55.05).
What would a takeover of Diebold Nixdorf cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Diebold Nixdorf would cost about $71.56 a share, $2.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.