Filing Flows › Dauch (DCH) › Takeover & LBO
Is Dauch (DCH) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($6.08 a share) would return about 17% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $4.73 a share (1% against today's $4.67). Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $6.08 | today's $4.67 plus 30% |
| × shares | 237.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.9B | |
| − Cash | $800M | |
| + Other claims | $6.5M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $5.5B | 6.7× EBITDA of $832M |
| Fees | $111M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.6B | 4.3× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $2.1B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.4B | $898M | $276M | $153M | $3.5B |
| Year 2 | $11.1B | $959M | $264M | $206M | $3.2B |
| Year 3 | $11.7B | $1.0B | $248M | $260M | $3.0B |
| Year 4 | $12.2B | $1.1B | $228M | $316M | $2.7B |
| Year 5 | $12.6B | $1.1B | $204M | $371M | $2.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.8B | |
| − Debt left | $2.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.5B | |
| Money multiple | 2.20× | on $2.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 17.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $4.67; the IRR reaches 20% at $4.73 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $5.14 | 19.1% |
| 20% | $5.61 | 18.1% |
| 30% | $6.08 | 17.1% |
| 40% | $6.54 | 16.0% |
| 50% | $7.01 | 15.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $832M | 8.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $728M | |
| Capital spending | $363M | |
| Debt | $4.9B | |
| Cash | $800M | |
| Share price | $4.67 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dauch would cost about $6.19 a share, $1.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $5.61 | $1.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $6.19 | $1.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $7.10 | $1.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.82× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Dauch's latest quarter
Dauch, Q3 2026: revenue $2.9B (+93% year over year), operating margin 2.5%, net loss $44.6M, operating cash flow $150M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Dauch being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Dauch?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($6.08 a share) would return about 17% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $4.73 a share (1% against today's $4.67).
What would a takeover of Dauch cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dauch would cost about $6.19 a share, $1.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.