Filing Flows › Datadog (DDOG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Datadog (DDOG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($305.85 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $109.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.36× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $305.85 | today's $235.27 plus 30% |
| × shares | 375.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $114.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $5.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $109.5B | 637.6× EBITDA of $172M |
| Fees | $2.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $944M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $110.7B | 99% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.6B | $185M | $72.2M | $30.8M | $913M |
| Year 2 | $4.9B | $198M | $69.9M | $44.6M | $869M |
| Year 3 | $5.2B | $209M | $66.5M | $59.2M | $810M |
| Year 4 | $5.4B | $218M | $61.9M | $74.3M | $735M |
| Year 5 | $5.6B | $224M | $56.3M | $89.7M | $646M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 483.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $108.4B | |
| − Debt left | $646M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $107.8B | |
| Money multiple | 0.97× | on $110.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $235.27.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $258.80 | 3.1% |
| 20% | $282.32 | 1.2% |
| 30% | $305.85 | −0.5% |
| 40% | $329.38 | −2.1% |
| 50% | $352.91 | −3.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $172M | 4.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $74.8M | |
| Capital spending | $41.0M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $5.2B | |
| Share price | $235.27 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Datadog would cost about $305.85 a share, $114.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $263.50 | $98.8B |
| Median | 30% | $305.85 | $114.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $308.20 | $115.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.36× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Datadog's latest quarter
Datadog, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (+35% year over year), operating margin 6.2%, net earnings $118M, operating cash flow $290M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Datadog being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Datadog?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($305.85 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $109.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Datadog cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Datadog would cost about $305.85 a share, $114.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.