Filing Flows › Dollar General (DG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Dollar General (DG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($179.40 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $112.94 a share (−18% against today's $138.00). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $179.40 | today's $138.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 221.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $39.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $4.6B | |
| − Cash | $1.6B | |
| = Enterprise value | $42.7B | 12.1× EBITDA of $3.5B |
| Fees | $854M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $19.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $24.2B | 56% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $45.7B | $3.7B | $1.5B | $379M | $19.0B |
| Year 2 | $47.7B | $3.9B | $1.5B | $486M | $18.5B |
| Year 3 | $49.6B | $4.0B | $1.4B | $597M | $17.9B |
| Year 4 | $51.3B | $4.1B | $1.4B | $710M | $17.2B |
| Year 5 | $52.8B | $4.3B | $1.3B | $826M | $16.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $40.6B | |
| − Debt left | $16.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $24.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $24.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $138.00; the IRR reaches 20% at $112.94 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $151.80 | 6.2% |
| 20% | $165.60 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $179.40 | 0.0% |
| 40% | $193.20 | −2.4% |
| 50% | $207.00 | −4.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $43.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.5B | 8.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.1B | |
| Capital spending | $1.3B | |
| Debt | $4.6B | |
| Cash | $1.6B | |
| Share price | $138.00 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dollar General would cost about $182.85 a share, $40.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $165.60 | $36.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $182.85 | $40.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $209.48 | $46.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.39× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Dollar General's latest quarter
Dollar General, Q2 FY27: revenue $11.3B (+5% year over year), operating margin 6.8%, net earnings $550M, operating cash flow $781M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Dollar General being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Dollar General?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($179.40 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $112.94 a share (−18% against today's $138.00).
What would a takeover of Dollar General cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dollar General would cost about $182.85 a share, $40.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.