Filing Flows › Diodes (DIOD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Diodes (DIOD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($104.17 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.05× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-05): Diodes Incorporated Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $104.17 | today's $80.13 plus 30% |
| × shares | 46.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $394M | |
| − Cash | $575M | |
| + Other claims | $72.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.7B | 17.4× EBITDA of $271M |
| Fees | $94.2M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.3B | 69% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.9B | $293M | $114M | $4.2M | $1.5B |
| Year 2 | $2.0B | $313M | $114M | $13.3M | $1.5B |
| Year 3 | $2.2B | $330M | $113M | $22.5M | $1.5B |
| Year 4 | $2.3B | $344M | $111M | $31.4M | $1.4B |
| Year 5 | $2.3B | $354M | $109M | $39.8M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $3.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $80.13.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $88.14 | 5.4% |
| 20% | $96.16 | 2.5% |
| 30% | $104.17 | 0.0% |
| 40% | $112.18 | −2.1% |
| 50% | $120.19 | −4.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $271M | 15.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $142M | |
| Capital spending | $144M | |
| Debt | $394M | |
| Cash | $575M | |
| Share price | $80.13 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Diodes would cost about $104.17 a share, $4.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $89.75 | $4.2B |
| Median | 30% | $104.17 | $4.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $104.97 | $4.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.05× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-05 · 8-K deal · Diodes Incorporated Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Diodes' latest quarter
Diodes, Q3 2026: revenue $533M (+36% year over year), operating margin 11.9%, net earnings $43.7M, operating cash flow $97.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Diodes being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-05: Diodes Incorporated Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Diodes?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($104.17 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Diodes cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Diodes would cost about $104.17 a share, $4.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.