Filing Flows › Dorman Products (DORM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Dorman Products (DORM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($176.81 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $103.46 a share (−24% against today's $136.01). Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $176.81 | today's $136.01 plus 30% |
| × shares | 29.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $441M | |
| − Cash | $167M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.6B | 16.1× EBITDA of $345M |
| Fees | $111M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.8B | 67% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $352M | $145M | $129M | $1.8B |
| Year 2 | $2.3B | $361M | $135M | $142M | $1.6B |
| Year 3 | $2.3B | $370M | $124M | $155M | $1.5B |
| Year 4 | $2.4B | $381M | $112M | $171M | $1.3B |
| Year 5 | $2.5B | $392M | $99.4M | $187M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.9B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.01× | on $3.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $136.01; the IRR reaches 20% at $103.46 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $149.61 | 5.4% |
| 20% | $163.21 | 2.6% |
| 30% | $176.81 | 0.3% |
| 40% | $190.41 | −1.8% |
| 50% | $204.01 | −3.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $345M | 15.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $55.6M | |
| Capital spending | $33.4M | |
| Debt | $441M | |
| Cash | $167M | |
| Share price | $136.01 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dorman Products would cost about $180.21 a share, $5.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $163.21 | $4.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $180.21 | $5.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $206.46 | $6.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.71× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Dorman Products' latest quarter
Dorman Products, Q3 2026: revenue $562M (+3% year over year), operating margin 14.8%, net earnings $59.2M, operating cash flow $64.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Dorman Products being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Dorman Products?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($176.81 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $103.46 a share (−24% against today's $136.01).
What would a takeover of Dorman Products cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Dorman Products would cost about $180.21 a share, $5.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.