Filing Flows › Duke Energy (DUK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Duke Energy (DUK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($169.10 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $64.30 a share (−51% against today's $130.08). At $222.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $169.10 | today's $130.08 plus 30% |
| × shares | 777.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $131.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $89.8B | |
| − Cash | $245M | |
| + Other claims | $1.2B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $222.2B | 13.6× EBITDA of $16.3B |
| Fees | $4.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $89.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $136.8B | 60% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $34.8B | $17.6B | $6.9B | −$4.9B | $94.7B |
| Year 2 | $37.2B | $18.8B | $7.2B | −$5.1B | $99.9B |
| Year 3 | $39.2B | $19.9B | $7.6B | −$5.4B | $105.3B |
| Year 4 | $40.9B | $20.7B | $8.1B | −$5.6B | $110.9B |
| Year 5 | $42.1B | $21.3B | $8.5B | −$5.9B | $116.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $250.6B | |
| − Debt left | $116.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $133.7B | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $136.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $130.08; the IRR reaches 20% at $64.30 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $143.09 | 2.9% |
| 20% | $156.10 | 1.1% |
| 30% | $169.10 | −0.5% |
| 40% | $182.11 | −1.9% |
| 50% | $195.12 | −3.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $32.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $16.3B | 50.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $7.7B | |
| Capital spending | $14.0B | |
| Debt | $89.8B | |
| Cash | $245M | |
| Share price | $130.08 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Duke Energy would cost about $172.36 a share, $133.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $156.10 | $121.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $172.36 | $133.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $197.46 | $153.4B |
Duke Energy's latest quarter
Duke Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $9.1B (+7% year over year), operating margin 30.2%, net earnings $1.6B, operating cash flow $3.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Duke Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Duke Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($169.10 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $64.30 a share (−51% against today's $130.08). At $222.2B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Duke Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Duke Energy would cost about $172.36 a share, $133.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.