Filing Flows › Davita (DVA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Davita (DVA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($250.06 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $183.87 a share (−4% against today's $192.35). Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $250.06 | today's $192.35 plus 30% |
| × shares | 65.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $16.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $10.8B | |
| − Cash | $566M | |
| + Other claims | $233M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $26.8B | 9.5× EBITDA of $2.8B |
| Fees | $536M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $15.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $11.8B | 43% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $15.1B | $3.0B | $1.2B | $880M | $14.6B |
| Year 2 | $15.9B | $3.2B | $1.1B | $1.0B | $13.6B |
| Year 3 | $16.7B | $3.3B | $1.0B | $1.2B | $12.4B |
| Year 4 | $17.3B | $3.4B | $946M | $1.4B | $11.0B |
| Year 5 | $17.8B | $3.5B | $841M | $1.5B | $9.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $29.0B | |
| − Debt left | $9.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $19.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.65× | on $11.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $192.35; the IRR reaches 20% at $183.87 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $211.59 | 16.0% |
| 20% | $230.82 | 13.0% |
| 30% | $250.06 | 10.5% |
| 40% | $269.29 | 8.2% |
| 50% | $288.52 | 6.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $14.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.8B | 19.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $698M | |
| Capital spending | $577M | |
| Debt | $10.8B | |
| Cash | $566M | |
| Share price | $192.35 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Davita would cost about $259.67 a share, $17.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $234.67 | $15.4B |
| Median | 35% | $259.67 | $17.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $278.91 | $18.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Davita's latest quarter
Davita, Q3 2026: revenue $3.6B (+5% year over year), operating margin 14.0%, net earnings $223M, operating cash flow $519M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Davita being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Davita?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($250.06 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $183.87 a share (−4% against today's $192.35).
What would a takeover of Davita cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Davita would cost about $259.67 a share, $17.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.