Filing Flows › DexCom (DXCM) › Takeover & LBO
Is DexCom (DXCM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($103.88 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $103.88 | today's $79.91 plus 30% |
| × shares | 383.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $39.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $961M | |
| = Enterprise value | $38.9B | 25.9× EBITDA of $1.5B |
| Fees | $778M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $8.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $31.4B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.5B | $1.6B | $631M | $457M | $7.8B |
| Year 2 | $5.9B | $1.7B | $596M | $555M | $7.2B |
| Year 3 | $6.2B | $1.8B | $553M | $652M | $6.6B |
| Year 4 | $6.5B | $1.9B | $503M | $745M | $5.8B |
| Year 5 | $6.7B | $2.0B | $446M | $831M | $5.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $38.8B | |
| − Debt left | $5.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $33.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.07× | on $31.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $79.91.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $87.90 | 6.1% |
| 20% | $95.89 | 3.6% |
| 30% | $103.88 | 1.5% |
| 40% | $111.87 | −0.5% |
| 50% | $119.86 | −2.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.5B | 29.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $275M | |
| Capital spending | $316M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $961M | |
| Share price | $79.91 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, DexCom would cost about $107.88 a share, $41.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $97.49 | $37.4B |
| Median | 35% | $107.88 | $41.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $115.87 | $44.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
DexCom's latest quarter
DexCom, Q3 2026: revenue $1.3B (+11% year over year), operating margin 24.3%, net earnings $275M, operating cash flow $326M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is DexCom being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy DexCom?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($103.88 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of DexCom cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, DexCom would cost about $107.88 a share, $41.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.