Filing Flows › ENI Spa (E) › Takeover & LBO
Is ENI Spa (E) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($72.80 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $37.64 a share (−33% against today's $56.00). At $226.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $72.80 | today's $56.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 3,146.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $229.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $2.8B | |
| = Enterprise value | $226.3B | 18.3× EBITDA of $12.4B |
| Fees | $4.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $68.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $162.8B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $84.6B | $12.7B | $5.2B | −$1.7B | $69.7B |
| Year 2 | $87.2B | $13.1B | $5.3B | −$1.7B | $71.4B |
| Year 3 | $89.8B | $13.5B | $5.5B | −$1.7B | $73.1B |
| Year 4 | $92.5B | $13.9B | $5.6B | −$1.8B | $74.8B |
| Year 5 | $95.2B | $14.3B | $5.7B | −$1.8B | $76.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $201.0B | |
| − Debt left | $76.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $124.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.76× | on $162.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −5.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $56.00; the IRR reaches 20% at $37.64 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $61.60 | −0.4% |
| 20% | $67.20 | −3.0% |
| 30% | $72.80 | −5.2% |
| 40% | $78.40 | −7.2% |
| 50% | $84.00 | −8.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $82.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $12.4B | 15.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $7.3B | |
| Capital spending | $8.7B | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $2.8B | |
| Share price | $56.00 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ENI Spa would cost about $74.20 a share, $233.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $67.20 | $211.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $74.20 | $233.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $85.01 | $267.5B |
ENI Spa's latest quarter
ENI Spa, Q2 2025: revenue $23.0B (-0.4% year over year), operating margin 10.1%, net earnings $1.2B, operating cash flow $2.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ENI Spa being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ENI Spa?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($72.80 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $37.64 a share (−33% against today's $56.00). At $226.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of ENI Spa cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ENI Spa would cost about $74.20 a share, $233.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.