Filing Flows › Brinker International (EAT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Brinker International (EAT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($271.80 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $176.63 a share (−16% against today's $209.08). Historically 1.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.29× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $271.80 | today's $209.08 plus 30% |
| × shares | 43.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $11.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $485M | |
| − Cash | $30.7M | |
| = Enterprise value | $12.1B | 14.0× EBITDA of $870M |
| Fees | $243M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.6B | 61% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.3B | $922M | $366M | $213M | $4.6B |
| Year 2 | $6.6B | $971M | $350M | $259M | $4.3B |
| Year 3 | $6.9B | $1.0B | $330M | $305M | $4.0B |
| Year 4 | $7.2B | $1.1B | $306M | $351M | $3.7B |
| Year 5 | $7.4B | $1.1B | $280M | $397M | $3.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $11.8B | |
| − Debt left | $3.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $7.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $209.08; the IRR reaches 20% at $176.63 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $229.99 | 8.1% |
| 20% | $250.90 | 5.0% |
| 30% | $271.80 | 2.3% |
| 40% | $292.71 | 0.0% |
| 50% | $313.62 | −2.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $870M | 14.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $217M | |
| Capital spending | $237M | |
| Debt | $485M | |
| Cash | $30.7M | |
| Share price | $209.08 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.1% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Brinker International would cost about $277.03 a share, $11.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $250.90 | $10.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $277.03 | $11.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $317.38 | $13.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.29× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Brinker International's latest quarter
Brinker International, Q1 FY27: revenue $1.5B (+9% year over year), operating margin 10.2%, net earnings $113M, operating cash flow $169M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Brinker International being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Brinker International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($271.80 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $176.63 a share (−16% against today's $209.08).
What would a takeover of Brinker International cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Brinker International would cost about $277.03 a share, $11.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.