Filing Flows › eBay (EBAY) › Takeover & LBO
Is eBay (EBAY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($158.65 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $84.41 a share (−31% against today's $122.04). At $77.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $158.65 | today's $122.04 plus 30% |
| × shares | 453.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $71.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $6.7B | |
| − Cash | $1.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $77.4B | 25.6× EBITDA of $3.0B |
| Fees | $1.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $16.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $62.3B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $13.4B | $3.3B | $1.3B | $966M | $15.7B |
| Year 2 | $14.3B | $3.5B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $14.5B |
| Year 3 | $15.1B | $3.7B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $13.1B |
| Year 4 | $15.7B | $3.8B | $1.0B | $1.6B | $11.5B |
| Year 5 | $16.2B | $4.0B | $881M | $1.8B | $9.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 20.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $79.5B | |
| − Debt left | $9.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $69.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $62.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $122.04; the IRR reaches 20% at $84.41 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $134.24 | 6.4% |
| 20% | $146.45 | 4.2% |
| 30% | $158.65 | 2.3% |
| 40% | $170.86 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $183.06 | −1.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $12.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.0B | 24.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $509M | |
| Capital spending | $637M | |
| Debt | $6.7B | |
| Cash | $1.2B | |
| Share price | $122.04 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, eBay would cost about $170.86 a share, $77.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $139.98 | $63.4B |
| Median | 40% | $170.86 | $77.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $195.51 | $88.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
eBay's latest quarter
eBay, Q3 2026: revenue $3.2B (+14% year over year), operating margin 19.2%, net earnings $497M, operating cash flow $875M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is eBay being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy eBay?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($158.65 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $84.41 a share (−31% against today's $122.04). At $77.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of eBay cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, eBay would cost about $170.86 a share, $77.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.