Filing Flows › Excelerate Energy (EE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Excelerate Energy (EE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($45.97 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.21 a share (−71% against today's $35.36). Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.93× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $45.97 | today's $35.36 plus 30% |
| × shares | 32.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $926M | |
| − Cash | $342M | |
| + Other claims | $1.6B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.7B | 8.2× EBITDA of $448M |
| Fees | $73.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.4B | 5.3× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.4B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.6B | $484M | $182M | −$128M | $2.5B |
| Year 2 | $1.7B | $517M | $192M | −$133M | $2.6B |
| Year 3 | $1.8B | $545M | $202M | −$138M | $2.8B |
| Year 4 | $1.9B | $568M | $212M | −$143M | $2.9B |
| Year 5 | $1.9B | $585M | $223M | −$149M | $3.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.3B | |
| − Debt left | $3.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.3B | |
| Money multiple | 0.93× | on $1.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $35.36; the IRR reaches 20% at $10.21 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $38.90 | 2.9% |
| 20% | $42.43 | 0.8% |
| 30% | $45.97 | −1.4% |
| 40% | $49.50 | −3.7% |
| 50% | $53.04 | −5.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $448M | 30.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $128M | |
| Capital spending | $369M | |
| Debt | $926M | |
| Cash | $342M | |
| Share price | $35.36 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Excelerate Energy would cost about $46.85 a share, $1.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $42.43 | $1.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $46.85 | $1.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $53.68 | $1.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.93× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Excelerate Energy's latest quarter
Excelerate Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $297M (-24% year over year), operating margin 31.8%, net earnings $14.2M, operating cash flow $80.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Excelerate Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Excelerate Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($45.97 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $10.21 a share (−71% against today's $35.36).
What would a takeover of Excelerate Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Excelerate Energy would cost about $46.85 a share, $1.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.