Filing Flows › Equifax (EFX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Equifax (EFX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($246.70 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $145.60 a share (−23% against today's $189.77). Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $246.70 | today's $189.77 plus 30% |
| × shares | 118.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $29.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.1B | |
| − Cash | $193M | |
| + Other claims | $20.5M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $34.1B | 17.0× EBITDA of $2.0B |
| Fees | $682M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $11.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $23.8B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.1B | $2.2B | $842M | $582M | $10.4B |
| Year 2 | $7.6B | $2.3B | $797M | $704M | $9.7B |
| Year 3 | $8.0B | $2.4B | $743M | $823M | $8.9B |
| Year 4 | $8.4B | $2.5B | $680M | $937M | $8.0B |
| Year 5 | $8.6B | $2.6B | $608M | $1.0B | $6.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $35.7B | |
| − Debt left | $6.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $28.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $23.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $189.77; the IRR reaches 20% at $145.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $208.75 | 8.5% |
| 20% | $227.72 | 6.1% |
| 30% | $246.70 | 3.9% |
| 40% | $265.68 | 2.0% |
| 50% | $284.66 | 0.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.0B | 30.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $759M | |
| Capital spending | $509M | |
| Debt | $5.1B | |
| Cash | $193M | |
| Share price | $189.77 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Equifax would cost about $265.68 a share, $31.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $217.67 | $25.7B |
| Median | 40% | $265.68 | $31.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $304.01 | $35.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Equifax's latest quarter
Equifax, Q3 2026: revenue $1.7B (+10% year over year), operating margin 21.0%, net earnings $212M, operating cash flow $560M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Equifax being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Equifax?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($246.70 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $145.60 a share (−23% against today's $189.77).
What would a takeover of Equifax cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Equifax would cost about $265.68 a share, $31.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.