Filing Flows › Ensign Group (ENSG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ensign Group (ENSG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($234.51 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $234.51 | today's $180.39 plus 30% |
| × shares | 59.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $13.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $144M | |
| − Cash | $392M | |
| + Other claims | $4.1M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $13.7B | 21.7× EBITDA of $630M |
| Fees | $273M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $10.5B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.1B | $680M | $265M | $299M | $3.2B |
| Year 2 | $6.5B | $726M | $242M | $356M | $2.8B |
| Year 3 | $6.9B | $766M | $215M | $414M | $2.4B |
| Year 4 | $7.2B | $799M | $183M | $470M | $1.9B |
| Year 5 | $7.4B | $822M | $147M | $524M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $13.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $10.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $180.39.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $198.43 | 8.1% |
| 20% | $216.47 | 5.5% |
| 30% | $234.51 | 3.2% |
| 40% | $252.55 | 1.2% |
| 50% | $270.58 | −0.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $630M | 11.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $121M | |
| Debt | $144M | |
| Cash | $392M | |
| Share price | $180.39 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ensign Group would cost about $243.53 a share, $14.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $220.08 | $13.1B |
| Median | 35% | $243.53 | $14.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $261.57 | $15.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ensign Group's latest quarter
Ensign Group, Q3 2026: revenue $1.5B (+14% year over year), operating margin 9.3%, net earnings $104M, operating cash flow $240M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ensign Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ensign Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($234.51 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Ensign Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ensign Group would cost about $243.53 a share, $14.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.