Filing Flows › EOG Resources (EOG) › Takeover & LBO
Is EOG Resources (EOG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($188.36 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $154.93 a share (7% against today's $144.89). At $100.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $188.36 | today's $144.89 plus 30% |
| × shares | 522.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $98.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.9B | |
| − Cash | $5.7B | |
| = Enterprise value | $100.5B | 6.4× EBITDA of $15.6B |
| Fees | $2.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $65.3B | 4.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $37.2B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $32.1B | $16.9B | $5.0B | $3.6B | $61.8B |
| Year 2 | $34.3B | $18.0B | $4.7B | $4.3B | $57.5B |
| Year 3 | $36.2B | $19.0B | $4.4B | $5.0B | $52.4B |
| Year 4 | $37.7B | $19.8B | $4.0B | $5.7B | $46.7B |
| Year 5 | $38.8B | $20.4B | $3.6B | $6.4B | $40.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $101.6B | |
| − Debt left | $40.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $61.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.65× | on $37.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $144.89; the IRR reaches 20% at $154.93 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $159.38 | 18.7% |
| 20% | $173.87 | 14.6% |
| 30% | $188.36 | 10.5% |
| 40% | $202.85 | 6.5% |
| 50% | $217.33 | 2.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $29.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $15.6B | 52.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $5.0B | |
| Capital spending | $6.1B | |
| Debt | $7.9B | |
| Cash | $5.7B | |
| Share price | $144.89 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, EOG Resources would cost about $191.98 a share, $100.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $173.87 | $90.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $191.98 | $100.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $219.94 | $114.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
EOG Resources' latest quarter
EOG Resources, Q3 2026: revenue $8.5B (+46% year over year), operating margin 41.9%, net earnings $2.8B, operating cash flow $3.8B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is EOG Resources being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy EOG Resources?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($188.36 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $154.93 a share (7% against today's $144.89). At $100.5B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of EOG Resources cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, EOG Resources would cost about $191.98 a share, $100.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.