Filing Flows › Equinor ASA (EQNR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Equinor ASA (EQNR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.12 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $41.39 a share (−6% against today's $43.94). At $142.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $57.12 | today's $43.94 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,500.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $142.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $142.8B | 4.1× EBITDA of $35.2B |
| Fees | $2.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $92.8B | 2.6× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $52.8B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $103.3B | $34.1B | $7.1B | $8.2B | $84.6B |
| Year 2 | $101.7B | $33.6B | $6.5B | $8.5B | $76.2B |
| Year 3 | $101.7B | $33.6B | $5.8B | $8.9B | $67.3B |
| Year 4 | $103.2B | $34.1B | $5.1B | $9.4B | $57.8B |
| Year 5 | $106.3B | $35.2B | $4.4B | $10.2B | $47.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $109.7B | |
| − Debt left | $47.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $62.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $52.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $43.94; the IRR reaches 20% at $41.39 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $48.33 | 12.5% |
| 20% | $52.73 | 7.9% |
| 30% | $57.12 | 3.3% |
| 40% | $61.52 | −1.5% |
| 50% | $65.91 | −6.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $106.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $35.2B | 33.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $9.8B | |
| Capital spending | $14.0B | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $43.94 | on Oct 12, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Equinor ASA would cost about $58.22 a share, $145.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $52.73 | $131.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $58.22 | $145.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $66.70 | $166.8B |
Equinor ASA's latest quarter
Equinor ASA, Q3 2025: revenue $26.0B (+2% year over year), operating margin 20.2%, net loss $204M, operating cash flow $6.3B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Equinor ASA being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Equinor ASA?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.12 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $41.39 a share (−6% against today's $43.94). At $142.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Equinor ASA cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Equinor ASA would cost about $58.22 a share, $145.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.