Filing Flows › Elastic N.V. (ESTC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Elastic N.V. (ESTC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Elastic N.V. on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$34.9M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $1.8B). Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.77× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. Elastic N.V.'s EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$34.9M on revenue of $1.8B, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Elastic N.V. would cost about $126.46 a share, $13.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $108.95 | $11.4B |
| Median | 30% | $126.46 | $13.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $127.44 | $13.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.77× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Elastic N.V.'s latest quarter
Elastic N.V., Q1 FY27: revenue $478M (+15% year over year), operating margin -4.9%, net loss $16.7M, operating cash flow $132M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Elastic N.V. being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Elastic N.V.?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Elastic N.V. on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$34.9M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $1.8B). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of Elastic N.V. cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Elastic N.V. would cost about $126.46 a share, $13.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.