Filing Flows › Etsy (ETSY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Etsy (ETSY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($115.65 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $63.71 a share (−28% against today's $88.96). Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $115.65 | today's $88.96 plus 30% |
| × shares | 117.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $13.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.0B | |
| − Cash | $2.3B | |
| = Enterprise value | $14.2B | 27.1× EBITDA of $525M |
| Fees | $285M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $11.6B | 80% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.3B | $567M | $221M | $273M | $2.6B |
| Year 2 | $3.5B | $605M | $200M | $325M | $2.3B |
| Year 3 | $3.7B | $638M | $175M | $376M | $1.9B |
| Year 4 | $3.8B | $666M | $146M | $426M | $1.5B |
| Year 5 | $3.9B | $686M | $114M | $473M | $1.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 21.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $14.5B | |
| − Debt left | $1.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $13.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.16× | on $11.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $88.96; the IRR reaches 20% at $63.71 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $97.86 | 7.3% |
| 20% | $106.75 | 5.0% |
| 30% | $115.65 | 3.0% |
| 40% | $124.54 | 1.2% |
| 50% | $133.44 | −0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $525M | 17.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $103M | |
| Capital spending | $5.6M | |
| Debt | $3.0B | |
| Cash | $2.3B | |
| Share price | $88.96 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Etsy would cost about $124.54 a share, $14.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $102.04 | $12.0B |
| Median | 40% | $124.54 | $14.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $142.51 | $16.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Etsy's latest quarter
Etsy, Q3 2026: revenue $692M (+11% year over year), operating margin 16.1%, net earnings $854M, operating cash flow $160M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Etsy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Etsy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($115.65 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $63.71 a share (−28% against today's $88.96).
What would a takeover of Etsy cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Etsy would cost about $124.54 a share, $14.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.