Filing Flows › Expand Energy (EXE) › Takeover & LBO
Is Expand Energy (EXE) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($110.34 a share) would return about 16% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $99.64 a share (17% against today's $84.88). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $110.34 | today's $84.88 plus 30% |
| × shares | 231.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $25.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.0B | |
| − Cash | $118M | |
| = Enterprise value | $30.5B | 4.7× EBITDA of $6.5B |
| Fees | $609M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $19.8B | 3.0× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $11.3B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $15.0B | $7.0B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $18.1B |
| Year 2 | $16.0B | $7.5B | $1.4B | $2.0B | $16.2B |
| Year 3 | $16.9B | $7.9B | $1.2B | $2.3B | $13.9B |
| Year 4 | $17.6B | $8.3B | $1.1B | $2.6B | $11.3B |
| Year 5 | $18.2B | $8.5B | $867M | $2.9B | $8.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $32.1B | |
| − Debt left | $8.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $23.6B | |
| Money multiple | 2.09× | on $11.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 15.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $84.88; the IRR reaches 20% at $99.64 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $93.37 | 22.5% |
| 20% | $101.85 | 19.1% |
| 30% | $110.34 | 15.9% |
| 40% | $118.83 | 12.8% |
| 50% | $127.32 | 9.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $13.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $6.5B | 46.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.9B | |
| Capital spending | $3.0B | |
| Debt | $5.0B | |
| Cash | $118M | |
| Share price | $84.88 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Expand Energy would cost about $112.46 a share, $26.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $101.85 | $23.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $112.46 | $26.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $128.85 | $29.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Expand Energy's latest quarter
Expand Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $3.3B (+11% year over year), operating margin 19.5%, net earnings $519M, operating cash flow $1.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Expand Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Expand Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($110.34 a share) would return about 16% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $99.64 a share (17% against today's $84.88).
What would a takeover of Expand Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Expand Energy would cost about $112.46 a share, $26.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.